哪種盈餘最寶貴?

這兩天看到宏碁(2353)的重大訊息(1/17盤後公布)2013年度損益自結數居然出現205億的淨損,每股虧損高達7.56元,數字確實驚人但不意外,為何呢? 宏碁去年第三季單季因依據國際會計準則36號公報規定認列商譽、商標權及客戶關係之資產減損損失,合計金額約新台幣99.43億元,導致單季虧損高達131億元,EPS-4.82元;前三季累積的淨損為129億元(本業虧損32億元)EPS-4.76元。宏碁創辦人施振榮先生親上火線進行再生計畫,擔任董事長及變革委員會的召集人,在興利除弊的計畫中最吸引人的即是從台積電挖角陳俊聖(前台積電公司全球業務暨行銷資深副總經理)擔任宏碁執行長重要職務。為了讓新任執行長績效能和過去一刀缺,進行拉肚子式的虧損提列是業界保障新官的標準模式,由於宏碁第四季的每股淨值初步估算還約20.6元,且財務狀況與現金流尚可(資產減損不影響當年營業現金流量),預期短線會影響股價但在新力量的行動改革下,股價是往前看,要再破去年1119日低點14.8元應該不易。施先生是宏碁的創辦人,台灣電子業的泰斗,如何讓宏碁再生復活、ACER品牌重還榮耀恐怕是他今生最重要的工作。

 

回到主題:哪種盈餘最寶貴?指的是哪種利潤對企業最實在和最有價值,同時讓投()資人放心持有且安心獲利。曾經在講課中列舉了下列多種不同的重大利潤和學員互動,說出何種最為寶貴及其理由。

1、合併報表下垂直整合的營業利益。

2、合併報表下多角化整合的營業利益。

3、採用權益法認列之關聯企業及合資損益之份額淨額。

4、出售投資性不動產利益。

5、出售金融性股權資產之利益。

6、按國際會計準則以公允價值衡量其對經營個體之投資價值而於本期產生之淨利。

其中第1項的垂直整合之營業利益尚包含僅在某項核心產品的專精製造或服務。經過討論後,筆者提到分析利潤或盈餘是否寶貴的重點不完全在金額巨大,而是在經常性製造發生且能產生營業性現金流入;如果經常發生與現金流入兩項特質無法兼顧,則寧取經常發生而捨現金流入;若是淨利巨大但沒有經常發生又無現金流入,那只是打腫臉充胖子,好看但不實在。因此,分析上述六種利潤,第12項是屬經常性且現金流特質,第3項屬經常性但無現金流,第45項有現金流(屬投資性質)而不具經常性,第6項則是皆無經常性和現金流入但金額有時非常巨大讓人想入非非。所以答案出來了第一級的盈餘品質在第12項;第二級則是第3項;第三級則屬第456盈餘品質好意謂它的濃度純和含金量高,這是公司最需要的也是最寶貴的,因為它會讓投()資者相信公司在核心事業的深耕、專精、和穩定,進而信任公司價值的續航力。當確定盈餘品質後,接著即可評估這些公司的獲利與營收的成長性,及毛利率和營益率的穩定性。第一級盈餘品質經典案例即是台積電(2330)公司,前三季獲利1,443億,EPS5.53元,它的營業現金流入高達2,590億,其在1/16公布第四季自結數的淨利為448億,EPS1.73元,預計全年淨利近1900億,現金流入也將逾3000億,這些獲利合現金流幾乎是來自本業提供,本業利益高達97.9%(去年3Q報表)

 

有學員提到第46項的淨利狀況為何如此?筆者就以高興昌鋼鐵公司(2008)和潤泰全球(2915)的案例分析。高興昌去年前三季累積獲利55億,EPS12.98元,但本業虧損仍出現2.8億,其中處分投資性不動產利益高達65.95億,大額的投資現金流入讓它改善財務狀況並脫離變更交易,但無法改善本業困境,它的股價即使在去年11月辦理現金減資前後,至今仍無法超越每股淨值,減資前每股淨值13.59元股價最高13(11/11),減資後每股淨值為15.53元股價最高為15.5(1/5)1/17收盤價為14.2元。

 

另外有關第6項最特殊的案例即是潤泰全球(代碼2915,業別是貿易百貨)與潤泰創新(9945,業別主要是營建)在去年11/14公布第三季獲利和EPS,兩家的3Q淨利分別為405億、272億,EPS更是驚人各為51.09元、24.91元,但累積前三季EPS則各為54.19元、28.83元。明顯地,第三季的特別貢獻並不是來自本業,而是屬前述第6項的盈餘屬性,簡單的說就是受制於國際會計準則(IFRS)規定須按投資大陸的大潤發公司上市股價市值(公允價值)認列利益,因而產生巨大的投資收入但這部分收入卻沒有現金流入(之前兩家公司是按權益法定期認列收入),而且主管機關對此收入也有不同意見,有關這部分的報導謹提供經濟日報摘錄公司重大訊息(潤泰全球)說明如後。我們以潤泰全股價為例,在3Q財報公布截止後隔天(11/15)即受鉅額EPS激勵一價高掛漲停83.3元,但隨著訊息披露和認列收入爭議,股價即受到壓抑,至今(1/17)又回到73.9元的起漲區,另一集團企業潤泰創新股價(1/1753.1)甚至更弱勢。如果不計入此部分鉅額收入,其實兩家公司的EPS和其目前股價則尚稱允當。

 

 

摘錄2013/11/18聯合報

潤泰獲利大暴衝,備受矚目,金管會上周指示證交所深入調查,潤泰與法國歐尚共同投資高鑫零售是否確實喪失控制力,有無違反以「公允價值」認列轉投資收益之規定;若證交所認定潤泰對高鑫仍有控制力,情節嚴重時,可能必須重編財報。潤泰集團與歐尚集團共同投資高鑫零售,經營大陸大潤發。814日雙方簽定「新股東協議」,控制力歸屬歐尚,潤泰即依高鑫零售市值認列獲利,潤泰全(2915)獲利390億元、潤泰新(9945)獲利258億元,合計達648億元。

潤泰是依我國目前採用的IFRS版本,在失去控制力的時點,以公允價值認列,不過官員表示,以往控制力變化多跟股權移轉有關,但本案股權完全不變,只是重簽股東協議,算是滿特殊的個案。依潤泰公布的訊息,新股東協議中,大多數董事還是由潤泰集團推薦、歐尚集團委任,管理層團隊也不變。證交所將從協議內容、董事席次、人事、財務決定權等各方面,展開實質調查,以確認潤泰有無控制力。至於調查結果,若不符國際會計準則(IFRS)已喪失控制力規定,如何處理?官員不願多說,會計師表示,如果不符規定,有可能需要重編報表。官員說,媒體報導潤泰公告的財報內容差異很大,顯示公司揭露不夠清楚,證交所上周只是請公司再說明清楚,尚未介入實質認定。由於實質認定需要作業時間,通常大約一、兩周,但此案主要公司在國外,調查時間可能較久。

金管會表示,我國目前採用的是2010年版IFRS,依此版本規定,有共同控制力者在喪失控制力的時點,必須依公允價值認列投資價值(2013年版本已無此規定),不過此版本並未規定不能有共同控制力;潤泰以「失去控制力」為由,採取公允價值認列投資收益,就是2010年舊版本規定。

 

摘錄2013/1/15潤泰全球公司重大訊息

本公司中華民國102年第三季財務報表經會計師核閱後歸屬於本公司之淨利為新台幣(以下同)430億元、每股盈餘54.19元、歸屬於本公司之業主權益(下稱業主權益)合計為489億元、每股淨值61.51元,其中依我國現行適用之國際會計準則第31號公報規定,按投資比例認列轉投資企業Concord Greater China Ltd.,重新以公允價值衡量其對經營個體之投資價值而於本期產生之淨利暨增加之業主權益均為390億元、每股盈餘49.19元、每股淨值49.10元,如不含前述重新以公允價值衡量之損益,則每股盈餘為5.00元、每股淨值為12.41元。本公司轉投資之關聯企業Concord Greater China Ltd.於西元2013814日訂立股東協議(「新股東協議」),修訂於西元20101212日訂立的股東協議(「現有股東協議」),主要更動為大潤發控股(RT-Mart Holding Ltd.)Concord Champion International Ltd(Cayman) 之大多數董事由潤泰集團推薦且由歐尚集團委任。更動後,Concord Greater China Ltd.對轉投資之企業個體(A-RT Retail Holdings Ltd.)之經營具重大影響力,且因前述更動應適用我國現行之國際會計準則第28 號及第31 號規定處理其權益。因此,Concord Greater China Ltd.應以公允價值重新衡量其對經營個體之投資,並以簽訂「新股東協議」當日之投資帳面金額與公允價值之差額,計入損益。前述會計原則之適用,均於首揭會計師核閱報告附註三()及十三()中揭露。

 

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