財報數字的終極障礙(Part2)?

真的好久沒看到這麼大的周線跌幅,雙十國慶休完假後要投資人承受4545.06%的加權指數跌幅,實在很難受。台股上周是全球重災區,重跌必有因,食安風暴、歐美大跌、加上台股技術面弱勢等全都同時引爆。不管從7/18最高點9593或是9/5次高點9532,跌到上周五收盤的8512點,台股下跌都已超過1000點,跌幅的滿足點似已出現,反彈可望出現,尤其一周市值快速蒸發1.5兆元及首次跌破年線後,台股大選前應該有機會反彈至九千點,但整體長線趨勢發展是否出現轉折訊號則是吾人關心重點。

 

股票投資很傷人的是股市在高原區我們的持股量遠遠高於資金量,而在低檔平原區卻是現金遠多於持股。因此,如果問套牢了怎麼辦?首先即是資金水位量控管,水位太滿又融資操作就該利用反彈減碼,千萬不要硬坳讓負債重壓心頭,個人財富管理如同企業,像勝華(2384)公司衝過頭只好用重整來防禦其實已大江東去;其次是檢視個股汰弱留強,留強的方法是檢視企業三性無慮(安全、獲利、流動),這是兼顧財務狀況和業績獲利,只要財務安全且今年獲利成長或平穩加上股價漲幅合理就不必擔心,甚至還可逆勢操作大跌後搶反彈。簡而言之,只要資金水位控管好,風險即去除大半。

 

前一篇提到的四家公司,哪三家是生技製藥公司?哪家是紡織公司? 有讀者分析ACD是生技類,B公司是紡織類。其實答案是ABC為生技公司,D則是很傳統的中和羊毛公司(1439),而A公司是今年股價大起大落的基亞(3176)B公司是1962年台交所成立時即上市的最老牌生技公司-中國化學(1701)C公司則是目前還在興櫃市場上回總統大選的話題公司-中裕新藥(4147、原公司名稱是宇昌)讓我們看看以下三點區分這四家公司的財報數字分析:

  1. 生技公司的核心在產品未來性及研發能力,因此投入研發費用是必然,ABC三家公司與中和羊毛(D)在損益表的研發費用比較,一目了然只有D公司沒有研發費用。

  2. 如果D公司是生技類,它應該如AC公司一樣沒有投資性不動產,專心搞研發即是,或是如AB公司大力在固定資產擴產,既沒研發又沒生產設備和廠房(折舊已提完)但不動產投資卻很大(土地),可見D公司是老邁生產事業且產品成熟沒企圖發展的有錢公司。

  3. 從前半年看營收,D公司和AC公司相近,但這兩家都發生嚴重虧損,但D公司卻沒有;另外若是D公司是生技類一定要大力募資(AC),但D公司的資本公積並無如AC公司,反而是保留盈餘大額存放表示過去賺到大錢,這和ABC三家公司不同。

  4. 另從股價檢視,AC公司有量有價,如果D公司的財報數字和產品與AC類似,其股價不該無量低價。

 

如果就ABC三家公司同屬生計製藥類來比較,財報數字評價在這就明顯出現障礙,亦即有營收、有賺錢、財務良好且歷史久遠也有名氣的B公司,其股票價值遠不如AC這類夢想公司(台股興櫃和上市櫃還有多家類似基亞和中裕新藥這類公司)當財報數字無法適當分析和評價公司投資價值,例如營收成長、現金流量、每股盈餘、股利率、及每股淨值,此時財報數字即失去投資評斷依據(可能僅存在它們的財務狀況還好)。對於投資價格的論述就僅能在產品前瞻性和爆發力做文章,例如該等新藥在臨床第幾期?引經據典描述其競爭力,及成功後的預期市場營收與現金流價值,這些題材的正當性、正確性、和成功率事實上存在著高度不確定性,但因有醫療專家和名人佐證,以及經營者皆有專業來頭,加上一些投資法人追捧護航,所以在新藥成功之前即仰賴這些醫學科技的研究題材,題材可以誇大引誘股票操作,在有限籌碼下就會如基亞上半年的瘋狂漲幅,但題材一旦碰到狀況也會兵敗如山倒,大漲大跌影響市場秩序確實值得監管單位注意。

 

屬於這些尚處於研究開發階段的新藥股,它的高股價是寄託於未來研發夢想的實現,在有夢最美希望成真的憧憬下,股價自然容易陶醉,等到產品檢驗塵埃落定就是收割或被割時。所有的股票中新藥研發類股是屬最耗本金、最費時間、最沒把握(受制於FDA嚴格要求)的族群,投資這類沒營收或沒賺錢公司,真的要藝高人膽大。筆者有位在美國醫藥界服務多年的朋友說,台灣有些新藥公司其實很像美國納斯達克掛牌的生技股,只有研發沒有營收照樣可以掛牌十餘年(他以擔任某家生技上市公司外部董事為例說明),只有當資金最後燒的山窮水盡時才會罷休(前面投入的大量資金也許取得一、二期臨床成功而有繼續燒錢價值)。以此觀之,新藥股的市場特色就像是當年網路股剛出道時的狂妄有理,本夢比言之鑿鑿,所不同的是網路股不必如新藥股有閻王般的審斷。

 

當財報數字面對市場最特殊的新藥研發股時,財報數字是很難說話的,它只能選擇沉默,它的沉默正是提醒我們更要對產品展望和其核心技術及外部監管環境做更多功課。

 

 

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